Americans go to the polls on November 5th to choose a new President to replace Joe Biden and their decision will have major ramifications for peace and security throughout the world.
The winner, whether it’s Donald Trump returning to the Oval Office or Kamala Harris stepping up from Vice President to the top job, will not formally take office until January 2025. However, their policy priorities will become apparent long before then.
With conflicts raging in Ukraine and the Middle East, and China flexing its muscles over Taiwan, the new “leader of the Free World” will be taking charge at a highly volatile period globally. America’s decision affects us all.
To explore the implications of a Trump or a Harris victory, Con Coughlin, defence and security editor of the Daily Telegraph, will be speaking at the Bath Royal Literary & Scientific Institution on Monday September 23rd at 7.30pm (tickets available here: https://www.brlsi.org/whatson/ukraine-gaza-challenges-for-western-solidarity/).
One of the reasons this US election feels especially momentous is that there are clear differences between the two candidates on foreign relations, which has not always been the case in previous contests.
Harris is likely to represent a continuation of Biden’s policies in Ukraine and Gaza. In the former conflict that would mean maintaining the flow of financial and military support to Ukraine without directly committing US military personnel (other than advisors). With Gaza, Harris has made conciliatory noises to the vociferous pro-Palestinian elements in the Democrat Party’s support base. She is likely to further pressurise Israel to end its campaign in Gaza and attempt to broker a ceasefire or lasting settlement. Harris is also expected to maintain the Biden administration’s softer stance towards Iran by not fully enforcing sanctions against the country, allowing the Tehran regime to sell oil without significant hindrance.
Trump, on the other hand, has boasted that he can broker a peace in Ukraine soon after winning office. This would possibly involve pressing Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky to comprise on ceding territory to Russia (with the threat of withdrawing US support if Zelensky refuses). Pressure would be simultaneously applied on Russia to accept a deal or face a major escalation in US military support for Ukraine.
In the Middle East, Trump has made clear his support for Israel in the conflict with Hamas. If he is in office, this may mean increased arms supplies to Israel and Netanyahu being given leeway to conduct the war in the way he deems most effective.
Trump would also likely ensure strict enforcement of the sanctions on Iran (as he did in his first term as President), with the aim of limiting the regime’s ability to fund terrorism and support organisations such as Hezbollah in Lebanon the Houthis in Yemen.
Meanwhile, NATO’s member countries can probably expect a smoother ride from a Harris administration than a Trump one. Trump’s insistence on members ‘paying their fair share’ towards defence and his threats to pull out of NATO could be making headlines again, just as they did between 2016 and 2020.
Finally, how either President will influence the much-vaunted ‘special relationship’ between the US and the UK remains to be seen. Trump is an avowed Anglophile but may find himself at odds with Keir Starmer’s government. Meanwhile, while Harris might be more ideologically in accord with the Labour leader, she might also be tempted to adopt Barack Obama’s cooler attitude towards Britain and a pivot towards the East in foreign affairs.
Whatever happens, there are likely to be two very different paths for world affairs and global security after November.
Con Coughlin’s insights into these questions are sure to provide a fascinating evening’s discussion at the Bath Royal.
Con has decades of experience as a journalist covering wars and international politics and his interviewed many world leaders. He has also written a number of acclaimed books on subjects including the Lebanon hostage crisis, Saddam Hussein, the Ayatollah Khomeini, the ‘War on Terror’ and Winston Churchill’s experience of war in Afghanistan.
To Book: https://www.brlsi.org/whatson/ukraine-gaza-challenges-for-western-solidarity/
Joe Houlihan- BRLSI Convenor for Military History.
Con Coughlin has been analysing these issues in his capacity as defence correspondent for the Daily Telegraph and now brings his latest insights to the BRLSI. Con is also a critically acclaimed author whose works have covered the War on Terror, Winston Churchill and the politics of Iran among others.
